How Donald Trump killed the Energy East pipeline
On March 24, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the death warrant for Energy East. Although he likely didn't know it, when he signed a presidential permit for the not-quite-dead-yet Keystone XL pipeline, he set in motion a series of events which likely forced TransCanada Corp.'s hand and led to the cancellation of its cross-Canada pipeline project.
When Energy East was proposed in 2013, it was a solution to three problems. First, Western Canadian and U.S. Bakken oil production were expected to grow – the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) forecast demand for pipeline shipments to increase to eight million barrels a day from four million between 2015 and 2030.
Second, the Keystone XL pipeline was denied a presidential permit by former president Barack Obama, the Northern Gateway pipeline to Kitimat, B.C., was on life support and a pipeline capacity crunch was looming.
Third, natural-gas shipments out of Western Canada had declined sufficiently that an existing gas pipeline owned by TransCanada could be converted to oil service without compromising gas deliverability.
These factors, combined with oil prices above $90 (U.S.), made it feasible to propose a 4,000-kilometre pipeline from Hardisty, Alta., to Saint John, since producers could stomach shipping costs estimated to be between $7 (Canadian) and $18 a barrel.
Little did they know how much would change. First was growth expectations. Before the price crash, escalating costs saw CAPP's 2014 oil sands forecast for 2030 reduced by about 300,000 barrels a day from 2013 levels. That reduction is the equivalent of just less than one-third of the capacity of Energy East.
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