Canada-Europe trade deal not really about trade

The benefits of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s new trade deal are vastly overblown. And, yes, there will be costs.

The devilish details of the just signed Canada-Europe trade pact remain mysterious. Ottawa has released fulsomely enthusiastic briefing notes that don’t tell much. The European Union has been slightly more forthcoming.

But here’s what we do know:

First, as with all modern trade agreements, this one is not really about trade. Yes, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement does remove tariffs on most goods traded between Canada and the European Union. But, with key exceptions — particularly in agriculture — most of those tariffs were low to begin with.
 

Rather, CETA — like the North American Free Trade Agreement before it — is really concerned with investment, regulation and standards.

With some exceptions, it would give investors on either side the right to demand compensation from any government action that interferes with private profit.
 

How this would work in practice remains unclear. But it should be noted that a similar provision in NAFTA has been used successfully by U.S. companies to strike down Canadian laws.
 

Oddly enough, similar attempts by Canadian companies operating in the U.S. have never been successful.
 

Second, as with NAFTA, there will be unambiguous losers from this deal. The Canada-U.S. free trade arrangement wiped out entire industries in this country, ranging from furniture-making to light manufacturing — all in the midst of a gruelling recession.
 

The negative effects of CETA promise to be far less sweeping, since there is not much of Canadian manufacturing industry left to destroy.
 

We know that the new pact will hurt Canadian cheesemakers and, through them, Canadian dairy farmers. Ottawa predicts the new deal will help Ontario carmakers by eliminating tariffs on autos with at least 20 per cent Canadian content.
 

But it’s equally plausible that the concurrent elimination of Canadian tariffs on European autos could hurt carmakers and their workers here.
 

Third, the only unambiguous winners on the Canadian side appear to be beef and pork producers. They will get considerably more access to European markets. In most areas of agriculture, however, the EU will be able to continue its current practice of protecting farmers through generous subsidies.
 

Incidentally, Ottawa’s prediction that the pact will create 80,000 new net jobs throughout the entire economy is entirely bogus, since it is based on the absurd assumption that no one can ever be unemployed.
 

The truth is that the net job effects of this deal won’t be known for years. But, in the short run, it’s a near certainty that some Canadians will lose their jobs.

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