Don’t blame equalization for Alberta’s fiscal mess
What about equalization? If the program was cancelled and all proceeds returned in equal per-person payments nationally, Alberta's $27-billion gap in 2015 would only fall to $25-billion.
Would excluding non-renewable resource revenue help? No. Alberta would still receive nothing, and Quebec would receive more. A lot more. I estimate its payment in 2017-18 would increase by $1.6-billion to nearly $12.7-billion. This is, presumably, the opposite effect that proponents of such a measure want. (This is due to the so-called "fiscal capacity cap," among other things, although the details don't concern us here.)
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